Nowhere to go but up
Florida State's 2024 was, by definition, rock bottom. But did it have to be that way? And are we destined for more seasons like the Noles' no good, very bad, DJU campaign?
Before we get started, a couple quick bits of housekeeping:
* Here's last week's newsletter, which focused on the Nico Iamaleava drama and the changing financial landscape of CFB. A big thing I had a couple coaches tell me over the past week, however: This is the most public example of a player holding a school hostage after spring ball, but it's far from the only example. As one coach said, "this has happened everywhere to every school."
* Andrea and I are back hosting Inside ACCess tonight at 6 pm on ACC, where our guest will be... FSU coach Mike Norvell. This is convenient since today's post focuses on the Noles.
* I’m also filling in for Paul Finebaum today at 3 pm on SEC Network. Am I preparing my exit via the ESPN transfer portal over to the SEC? Am I bringing that conference down from the inside? You’ll have to tune in to find out.
* Enjoying the content here? Please consider clicking the subscribe button. I promise you won't be inundated with spam. It'll be one (maybe two) emails a week, and it'll be fun content (mostly sports but also other stuff) that is a bit too long for social media but not quite dense enough for an ESPN feature. But more than that, I'm hoping we can eventually carve out a little community here that's a more fun way to discuss CFB (and other stuff) without trolls, idiots or anyone who disagrees with me ruining the conversation.
OK, on with the show...
When the light at the end of the portal is a train
The NFL draft begins Thursday. The first pick could well be Miami QB Cam Ward. Anyone who watched him play for the Canes last year shouldn't be surprised. He was a magician.
But here's an intriguing what-if scenario: Ward transferred from Washington State after the 2023 season. His destination came down to three final options: The NFL draft (which he said he was going to enter before reversing course), Miami (where he actually transferred) and... Florida State.
FSU wanted Ward, but Mike Norvell wasn't keen on the price tag or the long wait for a decision, so the Seminoles ultimately chose to follow Plan B, which turned out to be DJ Uiagalelei.
Now, in hindsight, we can all appreciate just how horrible a decision this was. The money Ward earned last year (an estimated $2 million) would've been a bargain for the Noles, and Miami certainly got every cent's worth.
But at the time, it wasn't exactly an insane choice.
Player A: 72.5 Total QBR, 7.54 yards/attempt, 43 passing TD, 13 rushing TD, 18 turnovers
Player B: 61.8 Total QBR, 7.09 yards/attempt, 48 passing TD, 13 rushing TD, 26 turnovers
Which one would you pick?
Player B is Ward, at least it was the data (as an FBS player) teams had to work with in the winter of 2024. He'd been a good player at Washington State, and his film was actually more impressive than the stats suggested -- but he was still turnover prone (19 fumbles!) and raw.
Player A was Uiagalelei, at least his two most recent seasons -- 2022 at Clemson and 2023 at Oregon State. Of course, the numbers here are also a bit misleading. He was benched at the end of 2022 after a complete implosion against South Carolina and the start of the ACC title game, and he was asked to do relatively little at Oregon State in 2023.
But again, his performance with the Beavers was mostly OK, and Florida State thought that's more or less what he'd need to do in Tallahassee, too, as Norvell built the offense around what was supposed to be an exceptional ground game.
Well, it didn't work out. Obviously. Ward made a run at the Heisman and had Miami on the brink of the playoff. Florida State went 2-10 in one of the most remarkably terrible seasons in college football history.
Again, it's somewhat easy to understand how Norvell thought he could make this work. Having Uiagalelei as your QB was a little like dating Taylor Swift in the 2010s: All you had to do was put on one of her albums to know this wasn't going to work out. In fact, it would end horribly and in an embarrassingly public way. But it's Taylor Swift, and it's easy enough to convince yourself that you're different than all the guys who came before.
So it was with Uiagalelei -- the big arm, the good teammate, the glowing personality, the former five-star recruit. Surely, Norvell was the coach to make it work.
Yes, in this analogy Mike Norvell is Tom Hiddleston.
So here's a question: What if FSU hadn't bowed out of the Ward sweepstakes and had actually landed their Plan A quarterback? How many more games would the Noles have won in 2024 if Ward was leading the offense?
The opener at Georgia Tech, a three-point loss? Yeah, there's one.
The follow-up against BC, when the offense couldn't do squat for most of the game? Possibly.
A one-possession loss to Memphis? Or Duke? Could they have even had a shot in a 42-16 blowout loss to SMU in which DJU threw three picks, all of which led to TDs, and actually only trailed by five at halftime? It's not crazy to think that could've been a win if you swap out the INT machine for a Heisman finalist.
Yes, the season fell apart late. But by that time, FSU's team had clearly given up on a lost campaign, the misery of 2024's death march overcoming any hint of "culture" that Norvell believed he had. And sure, the O-line stunk, injuries destroyed the backfield, and the defense wasn't what it was supposed to be. But change the QB and a lot of those problems get covered up. Change the result of that Week 0 game in Dublin, and the entire energy around the team might be different. Add Ward's magic -- like he showed against Virginia Tech and Cal, two games any other QB would've lost -- and instead of walking into nearly every game feeling like an anvil was about to fall on its head, FSU might believe it was a team of destiny.
That's a lot of "ifs" of course, but I think it's worth debating for this reason: What happened in 2024 at FSU is unlike anything we've seen in the modern history of big-time college football, and understanding why it happened and how it might've gone differently is the key to deciding whether there's better days ahead for the Noles in 2025.
For perspective, our pals at CFBNumbers delivered a scathing review of the season HERE. But those numbers also show what a ridiculous outlier FSU was last year. That kind of fall from grace -- 13-0 on Dec. 3, 2023 to 2-10 on Dec. 3, 2024 -- just doesn't happen.
Indeed, according to ESPN Stats and Information, the only larger regression in the AP poll era was 2012 Southern Miss, which went from 12-2 to 0-11. (Southern Miss rebounded to... 1-11 the next year under new head coach Todd Monken but was back in the CUSA title game by 2015).
But (with the help of ESPN Stats and Info), I dug into the numbers on other similar1 declines to see how they played out.
There have been 27 examples of P5 schools with a six-win dip year over year since 2004. Here they are:
2011 Maryland
2012 Arkansas
2013 Florida
2014 Vandy
2015 Georgia Tech
2015 Missouri
2016 Mich St
2017 Baylor
2018 USC
2018 Louisville
2019 Northwestern
2020 Baylor*
2020 LSU*
2020 Penn State*
2020 Minnesota*
2021 Indiana*
2021 USC*
2021 Northwestern*
2022 Mich St
2022 Baylor
2023 TCU
2023 Pitt
2024 Florida State
2024 Washington
2024 Oklahoma St
2024 Michigan
2024 Arizona
* based on adjusted 2020 win totals
So what can we learn from this group?
Well, some fun tidbits:
Of the 27 teams here, just four fired their coach afterward, so keeping Norvell wasn't exactly a huge leap of faith. (Though Gary Pinkel also resigned after the 2015 season at Missouri, and three more coaches were fired after Year n+1.)
It's interesting to see Baylor, Michigan State and Northwestern show up multiple times. One reason: They play a lot of close games. Close games have a way of averaging out over time -- so a particularly ugly season filled with close losses can pretty easily be followed by a season in which those games are mostly wins.
I’m not sure if there are many commonalities when it comes to explaining the downfalls, but the bad QB play could be one. Some names prominently involved here beyond DJU: Christian Veilleux, Jack Tuttle (2x!), Jeff Driskel, Puma Pass, Hunter Johnson.
But the big question: How did those teams do in Year n+1? Was there a big rebound?
Of the schools we have Year n+1 data for, they improved the next year by an average of three wins.
Now, a 5-7 campaign probably isn't getting any FSU fans off the ledge, but it's a start.
And of that group, seven saw an improvement of at least six wins (33%). Can FSU join that group and get to 9-3?
Indeed, three of those schools -- 2017 Michigan State, 2021 Baylor and 2022 USC -- won double-digit games after being disasters the prior year.
So, as much as FSU's fall from grace was unheard of, a return to glory after a catastrophic season isn't exactly like chasing Bigfoot.
But honestly, I find those numbers less interesting than another notable bit of information to be gleaned from the data.
Look again at the years rather than the teams.
From 2005 through 2010, there was not a single example of a P5 team having a six-win decline YoY. Not one.
From 2011 through 2017, there were eight -- an average of 1.1 per year.
From 2018 through 2021, there were six -- an average of 1.5 per year.
From 2022 through last year, there were nine -- including five in 2024 -- an average of 3 per season.
Now, it's worth noting this is a pretty small data set, so we shouldn't draw too many broad conclusions, but I do think it's fair, given all the changes happening around the sport over the last few years, to theorize that there is more volatility than there used to be -- even for good programs.
Some other examples...
So here's a theory -- and I emphasize, it's a theory based on minimal info so it may be completely wrong...
What if the incredibly, historically, ridiculous thing that happened to Florida State last year is actually going to become something that happens, well, if not often, at least occasionally enough that we're not surprised by it anymore?
Which brings me back to the original question: How much different would FSU have been with Ward instead of Uiagalelei?
My answer is that the Noles wouldn't have been as good as Miami was last year, but they sure as hell wouldn't have been 2-10 either. Indeed, an 8-4 campaign would've been entirely reasonable, I think. And if FSU had gone 8-4 the year after losing a chorus of stars to the NFL and dealing with the disappointment of the playoff snub, it would've been kind of a bummer for hardcore fans but mostly would've gone unnoticed nationally.
And if one personnel decision in an era in which programs are turning over more than half their roster annually and thousands of players are moving through the portal can make that much difference... well, it stands to reason that coaches will roll the dice on the wrong player or two often enough (or get lucky with the right handful of guys, too) that the margin between 10 wins and three wins isn't quite what it used to be.
None of this is to excuse last year's FSU performance. It was awful by any metric, and, as noted, there were a lot more problems than QB. But we're in a new era of college football, and I think it's at least worth asking if FSU wasn't a complete aberration but instead was a canary in the coal mine.
Watch Inside ACCess
Another reminder: Want lots more FSU talk? Andrea Adelson and I are back hosting Inside ACCess tonight at 6 on ACCN with special guest Mike Norvell.
Join us, won't you?
Did you miss last week’s show? Here’s my rundown of possible ACC summer beach reads based on the new children’s book about Haynes King.
We also talked to Stanford interim coach Frank Reich, and you can find that interview HERE.
Nice beaver
A week from today, I will be embarking on a previously unthinkable journey of remaining inside a Buc-ee’s location for 24 consecutive hours.
Why would I do this?
Because I lost a bet, of course.
Andrea and I make a bet each year on the winner of our ACC picks throughout the season. There’s no prize for the winner. It is entirely about punishing the loser. This year, we allowed our Twitter followers to choose our punishment and this was the top submission.
And so on April 28 at approximately 10 a.m. I will enter the Daytona Beach location of Buc-ee’s and remain there until approximately 10 a.m. the following day. (Come say hello if you’re in the area!)
We’ve got a lot of fun planned around this, but we’ll also be hosting our show from there, running that night, and filming a small feature for ACCN on the escapades. Be sure to follow me on the socials (Twitter, Bluesky, IG, TikTok) for more windows into the madness.
Draft Drought
The NFL draft starts Thursday. Things look bleak for the ACC, where only two players look like first-round locks: Cam Ward and Omarion Hampton. One is a one-year rental, the other a guy whose team was a complete bust in 2024. (Though both players are awesome.)
It’s certainly possible there are some surprises and we see as many as five ACC players taken, but the odds aren’t high. And that is continuing a trend. A look at the numbers…
So, should the ACC have just 4 players taken, that would mark four straight seasons with fewer than five — something that hadn’t happened since there were just nine teams in the conference. Should it have three taken, it’d be the worst first round for the league since 2012, widely considered the recent nadir of the league (pre-FSU and Clemson success, post-Virginia Tech success). Should there be just two, it’d be the worst first round for the ACC since 2004. (And Miami had six first-rounders that year, the final year before the Canes joined the ACC.)
Talent is the critical ingredient in college football. It wins games. It puts butts in seats. It gets donors to fork over money. And given all the other shifts in college football in recent years, it’s hard not to be concerned from an ACC perspective that there’s less talent in the conference than there has been in quite a while.
Oh, one other nugget: Should FSU corner Azareye’h Thomas not be selected in Round 1, it would mark the first time neither Clemson nor FSU had a first-round pick since 2012.
Mt. Rushmores for Cuse, UGA
Continuing our offseason voting on the top four all-sport figures at various schools, we looked at Syracuse and Georgia last week.
For Cuse, it’s personal for me. I went with Melo, Jim Brown, Ernie Davis and Riley Dixon. Pretty indisputable I think.
For UGA, I went with Frank Tarkenton, Herschel, Dominique Wilkins and Teresa Edwards. Surprisingly little pushback here though I did get a couple strong arguments for Frank Sinkwich > Fran. Seems odd not to have any athletes from the past 40-ish years at Georgia though.
Anyway, you can vote HERE and we’ll hit Georgia Tech and one or two others this week.
God’s speed, Coach
ESPN announced last week that Lee Corso was officially retiring from College GameDay. To say it is the end of an era is an understatement. Corso made GameDay.
Ryan McGee and I discussed this on Saturday’s “Marty & McGee,” and while there’s ample platitudes for Corso, I think there are two points that mean the most to me.
First, good luck finding anyone with a resume who can match Corso’s. He was a college roommate with Burt Reynolds2. He was a head coach at Louisville, Indiana and NIU (and a USFL team in Orlando helmed by former Missouri QB Steve Pisarkiewicz!). He’s a pencil company magnate.
But more importantly, Corso spent the past four decades celebrating the fun of college football. I can’t overstate how significant that is. Particularly now, where the sport feels like it’s entire goal is to set fire to any joy a fan can have, Corso has always prioritized connecting fans with the color, pageantry and wonder of college football. And while there are plenty of folks out there today (myself included) who crack jokes and make the sport’s colorful history into a platform for themselves, Corso never did that. He just wanted viewers to love the game the same way he did.
Best wishes for a long and beautiful retirement, Coach.
This week’s reading material
Speaking of Corso, my favorite GameDay celebrity appearance was Bill Murray’s at the 2013 Clemson-FSU game in which the superstar actor nearly killed poor Lee Corso.
As a fun side note to that, after tackling Corso, Murray took the FSU spear and hurled it into the rabid Clemson crowd. Now, those spears aren’t something you can buy at Wal-Mart. They’re handmade by Seminole Indians. My friend Zach Stipe, then one of the SIDs at FSU, had to go into the crowd and attempt to get it back. By some miracle, the crowd hadn’t destroyed it.
Anyway, with all that in mind, here are a couple good Bill Murray reads: The oral history of the making of “What About Bob?” and a great Q&A between Murray and the NYT.My pal Dave Wilson had arguably the greatest story pitch ever at Augusta last week… spending an afternoon at the local Hooters with John Daly.
My other pal Tommy Tomlinson sent me this story from a Philly native who laments the rapid expansion of Wawa. Now, there are few things on this planet I have a more passionate opinion on than Wawa, and I can certainly see his point. There’s a certain nostalgia or sincerity to having to return to a place in order to access something you love. But let’s be clear: If and when Wawa opens a Charlotte location I will be there at least five times per week. (And, not to discredit a writer based on one bad opinion, but if the chicken cheesesteak is his go-to hoagie, I’m just not sure I can trust his Wawa takes anyway.)
"Similar" being a relative term here. I took any Power Five school from the last 20 years who saw at least a six-win decline year over year. Because the 2020 COVID season screwed with win totals due to abridged schedules, I adjusted for this by using projected wins prorated over a 12-game schedule based on their actual win%.
When Reynolds died in 2018 I was tasked with writing an obit for ESPN — something I was ill prepared for beyond having watched “Smokey and the Bandit” a few dozen times. But I talked to Corso, among others, and I think it’s still one of my favorite pieces I’ve written.