Talking about playoffs?!?

After two weeks of media days, where the CFP's future was the topic de jour, I'm definitely over talking about playoffs.

Greetings. We’re just a month away from real college football games, and that means we’re at the apex of “talkin’ season.” This year’s talk was all about the future of the College Football Playoff, and honestly, it’s been awful.

Andrea Adelson and I (along with the great Kelsey Riggs) talked with CFP executive director Rich Clark on ACCN this week about the current situation.

You’ll notice the open to that clip includes a plan from Rhett Lashlee that, more or or less mirrors a plan put forth by Missouri coach Eli Drinkwitz, too, in which leagues would have a championship game, but both of those teams make the playoff. Then they'd play 2-3 more games and the winners of those would make the playoff, too. It'd create a playoff before the playoff essentially. I think this idea has some merit for a reason I'll get to in a moment.

But, it should also be said, from what I've been told, Lashlee's plan has zero traction. Instead, we're hearing some more traditional approaches.

Jim Phillips has been cautious in his comments, but to read between the lines, it's clear he's not going to tolerate auto-bids beyond conference champs.

Greg Sankey also wants a 5+11 but said he'd be OK staying at 12 if they must. He's changed his tune from auto-bids because his coaches are (mostly) against it. Why? Because they think the SEC will, more often than not, get *more* than four teams into a 5+11 model.

Brett Yormark has made it quite clear he will not accept auto-bids.

I was at The American's kickoff on Friday, where Tim Pernetti said the same. Other G6 commissioners agree (though they're mostly just happy to still be included).

So what's the holdup if everyone agrees on 5+11?

Ah, the Big Ten. My pal Matt Fortuna sums their position up well here ($).

The war of words between the Big Ten and SEC reached its apex when James Franklin referred to the SEC as "That Other Conference" which is hilarious. Greg Sankey noticed, by the way.

Clark says they have a Dec. 1 deadline to find common ground. I think they will -- and I also think that Dec. 1 deadline is more malleable than they're suggesting. But the bigger thing to consider here isn't the specifics, but why exactly we're having this debate.

As I noted from Kirby Smart at SEC media days:

“There’s been a major strain put on the colleges that are borderline, bubble. These coaches just want an opportunity to get in that because the bigger the playoffs have gotten it’s minimized the bowls. And if you’re at a mid-tier SEC program, you need to have a reason for your fan base to be excited, an opportunity for your fan base to think they’ve got a chance. And that’s hard in some of the models.”

This is the whole issue. When the B1G and SEC expanded, the money made sense because the financial pie grew. But the number of wins available to each team remains static, which means a bunch of teams that are used to competing for titles and playoff bids and big-time bowl games are now left out. Add to it that the larger the playoff gets the less other bowls matter, and suddenly there's no carrot to dangle in front of fans and coaches and ADs at dozens of schools who had become accustomed to getting a prize at the end of nearly every season. (Some might call this a participation trophy. Not me though. That'd be mean.)

Then there's the other elephant in the room: The Big Ten is just not that deep. Yes, Ohio State and Michigan have won the past two national titles. Yes, Oregon and Penn State invest at a championship level (though Oregon has never won one and Penn State hasn't since 1986 and only made the playoff for the first time last year). Yes, Washington and USC have ample upside if they can get their acts together. So, six teams who, theoretically, could win a title if all goes right.

But since Penn State's last title in 1986, the ACC has Florida State, Clemson, Miami and Georgia Tech with natties. Virginia Tech has a host of 10-win seasons (though that feels like forever ago). It's not that different. And then you add in renewed investment at "sleeping giant" programs like SMU, North Carolina and Louisville and -- well, it's probably not as deep as the Big Ten, but there are at least four and maybe six teams who are also investing at championship level. Meanwhile in the SEC, I'd argue that number is somewhere between 10 and 13.¹

So the Big Ten needs autobids because the risk of a 5+11 is far more than it is for the SEC.²

Another worthwhile point that I rarely see made: The B1G talks often about who "would have" gotten into a playoff in the past. Conferences have been using this metric for years and it was a big part of why revenue was split unevenly. But that's a false narrative. USC, Washington, Oregon, Texas and Oklahoma had playoff-caliber seasons -- IN OTHER LEAGUES. If they played in the SEC or Big Ten, either those schools or other members of those leagues would HAVE to lose additional games. It's a zero-sum system. The conference is always .500.³

But here's where I want to get back to Lashlee's idea and why it makes some sense.

We asked a number of coaches this question over the past two weeks: How many teams can realistically win a national championship in any given year? The answer varied but was never more than six.

Six teams. So whether the playoff is 12, 14, 16 or 30, at least half the field isn't qualified to win it all.

What's the point then? Answer: TV.

It's an entertainment product at the end of the day. The other schools play high profile games, use it for recruiting, earn more money, fans get to watch and travel and spend money, and all of us have some extra TV content to fill our December and January viewing schedules.

So, if this is all about entertainment, then why not do exactly what Lashlee and Drink have suggested and create a formula that is the best possible TV product?

If we can't all agree on 5+11, then let's go way outside the box and make something unique and fun and great for TV.

As one coach told me a few years back: COVID exposed the circus tent that is college football. Let's forget the pretense now and concentrate on putting on the best show.

Preseason ACC stuff

At ACC Kickoff, we had to vote for our preseason All-ACC team and our predicted order of finish.

I'm not going to share my order of finish because, frankly, I think it's dumb. I have no clue who'll finish seventh or 12th. But I think there's a good tiered situation to start the year.

Best teams: Clemson, Georgia Tech, Louisville, Miami

Could get into the mix: SMU, Florida State

Good 2024 but tougher schedule in 2025: Duke, Syracuse

I think will be better: NC State, Pitt, Virginia, Virginia Tech

Low expectations: Boston College, Cal, Stanford, Wake

Who the hell knows: UNC

My sleeper here is probably Virginia. Incredibly manageable schedule, veteran QB, a good bit more talented than last year. I think 7-5 should be the floor there.

As for my preseason All-ACC team

Don’t yell at me. These things are meaningless.

QB: Cade Klubnik, Clemson
RB: Jamal Haynes, GT
RB: Isaac Brown, Lou
AP: Desmond Reid, Pitt
WR: Antonio Williams, Clemson
WR: Bryant Wesco, Clemson
WR: Caulin Lacy, Lou
TE: Isaiah Lofton, Miami
OT: Blake Miller, Clemson
OT: Francis Mauigoa, Miami
OG: Keylan Rutledge, GT
OG: Logan Parr, SMU
C: Luke Petitbon, FSU

DE: Rueben Bain, Miami
DE: TJ Parker, Clemson
DT: Peter Woods, Clemson
DT: Jordan van den Berg, GT
LB: Kyle Louis, Pitt
LB: Kyle Efford, GT
LB: Cade Uluave, Cal
S: Terry Moore, Duke
S: Isaiah Nwokobia, SMU
CB: Chandler Rivers, Duke
CB: Avieon Terrell, Clemson

K: Collin Rogers, SMU
P: Kade Reynoldson, Duke
Sp: Keelan Marion, Miami

What else did we cover at ACC Kickoff?

Tommy Castellanos continues to spar with Alabama, Bill O’Brienand self-awareness.

Kevin Jennings is putting the Penn State loss behind him.

Virginia Tech was accused of tampering.

Clemson and LSU are arguing over stadium nicknames.

Duke’s players aren’t fond of Malik Murphy’s contributions last year.

The ACC isn’t looking to expand, even if it goes to nine conference games.

Dave Doeren has beef with ECU.

Andrea Adelson: Still short.

Oh, right. Belichick was there, too.

Here’s our story on UNC insisting the coach’s private life is not a distraction.

From Jordan Shipp:

"Social media can promote some narrative, but that was not a distraction to us at all. There was never a problem, like people saying she was running practice. We'd never really see her in the building. That was never a problem."

I tend to believe Shipp’s assessment. Do I think players (and their friends and family) spent some time reading about Bill & his lady friend? Absolutely. It was unavoidable. But do I think it will in any way impact their performance at practice or on game day? Not one bit.

The two highlights of my time with Belichick though:

1. Jordan Shipp noted that, last year, he’d eat breakfast with Mack Brown’s wife Sally on a regular basis. His point was that it’s not weird at all for a coach’s significant other to be in the building or be involved with the team. When I asked Belichick about this, however, he bristled: “Jordon’s never had lunch with anyone.” Then, to clarify he was talking about Hudson, not Shipp, he added, “My Jordon.”

2. I asked Belichick about how much he wanted his team to be privy to his personal life because, as several players suggested, there’s supposed to be a “family atmosphere” there. “Yeah, of course,” he said gruffly. Then stared at me dead in the eye for… well, it seemed like an hour but I went back and listened to the recording again and it was 19 seconds. Truly, we had a classic Belichick staring contest in complete silence for 19 full seconds. And then I caved. In part because we only got 20 minutes with him and I couldn’t waste a lot of time, but also because I was fairly certain if it lasted any longer my head would melt like the Nazi in “Raiders of the Lost Ark.”

ACC QB competitions

Re: QB competitions in the league, Fran Brown, Bill O’Brien and Jake Dickert all said the jobs were wide open right now.

Brown brought Rickie Collins to media day, but he also said that was, in part, because Steve Angeli went to the Manning Academy and because the ACC told him he had to bring a QB.

If I was guessing on the other two, I’d probably lean toward Robby Ashford at Wake and Dylan Lonergan at BC, but that’s just a “reading between the lines” prediction before camp even opens.

Pat Narduzzi didn’t bring a QB but said Eli Holstein has looked great and there’s no question he’s the starter. Pat just likes to break the rules, I guess.⁴

A few other quick notes

• The ACC Network fall camp road trip begins this week. I’ll be in Winston-Salem for the Wake Forest show on Tuesday, then Andrea and I will be at both Cal and Stanford next month.

• Andrea and I will also be doing a special one-off of Inside Access we’re taping on Aug. 5 at the mothership in Bristol. I think it’ll air that night but will share more info on socials when I have it.

• Cool story from Trevor Hass, who traveled with Bill O’Brienfor ACC Kickoff.

• In the last newsletter, I offered 10 “new” music recommendations from my quest to find current stuff I like. One other: Pony Bradshaw’s new album, which skews more traditional country than “Americana” or “alt-country” is quite good. I’m going to see him at the Neighborhood Theater in Charlotte on Friday. If any of y’all make there, too, come find me and I’ll buy you a beer.

• My good friend Tommy Tomlinson took a buyout from his role at the local NPR station. This is something he partially wanted to do, but also something necessitated by the massive cuts in federal spending to support public radio. But Tommy is awesome and an amazing writer, and I’d highly recommend supporting him in his next step by subscribing to his Substack, The Writing Shed. It’s a delight.

• My small contribution to Tommy’s podcast archives can be found HERE. It was a fun discussion of the lunacy of college football.

• Don’t forget to share and subscribe if you found any of this entertaining or informative or because you’re just good people.

1. One great way to look at this is Bud Elliott’s Blue Chip Ratio — i.e. the number of programs who have at least 50% blue-chip players on their roster. Those, the theory goes, are the only ones who can win a national championship.

SEC - 9 (+ Ole Miss and South Carolina as first teams out)
ACC - 3 (+ Notre Dame)
Big Ten - 5
Big 12 - 0

These numbers typically reflect draft results and overall recruiting as well.

2. The ACC doesn’t like the SEC being perceived as twice as good, but frankly, that might be an understatement (as SEC coaches have suggested). But perhaps the bigger issue is the contention that the ACC and Big 12 are equal. The ACC really hates that.

3. Even if Karl Ravech isn't so sure

4. He also stole the “ACC: Accomplish Greatness” floor mat in front of the room where I was doing interviews and brought it home with him.