The ACC's doomsday scenario

Duke can win the ACC title despite five losses. This is very, very bad news for the leage.

I hope everyone had a great Thanksgiving week, though if you’re an ACC fan… hoo, boy. Maybe not.

I don’t have time to dig into much in this post, as I’ve got a ton on my plate this week (more on that momentarily), but things are definitely not setting up well for the old ACC.

As I wrote in my last Game Day Final of the year, there’s been no chaos at the top of the rankings, despite plenty of drama…

Were Saturday’s results a relief for Vanderbilt, BYU and Miami? All three won, remaining alive for the playoff. But the lack of chaos around them only made the margin thinner. BYU controls its destiny, at least, getting a shot at the Big 12 title against Texas Tech. Vandy and Miami can do nothing more than wait and hope the committee reevaluates assumptions it has already clarified again and again.

For Miami, which utterly dismantled a ranked Pitt team 38-7, the wait is particularly galling. The Hurricanes are clearly the ACC’s best team but surely feel like a chance at a conference title -- and the guaranteed playoff bid that comes with it -- has been stolen from them like so many Lamborghinis in Carson Beck‘s driveway. Instead, 7-5 Duke will go to the league title game in Charlotte, North Carolina, to face Virginia, all because some convoluted tiebreaker scenarios are punishing Miami for losing a pair of games. Oh, and the ACC refs; they’re always helping out Coach K.

Indeed, top 15-ranked teams are 45-8 since the first committee rankings were released. Of those eight losses, five were to other top-15 teams. The remaining three? Texas A&M to Texas on Friday, Louisville to Cal and Virginia to Wake Forest.

In other words, it’s been status quo... unless you’re in the ACC. In fact, while Miami is 4-0 as a committee-ranked team, the rest of the ACC is 3-8.

Not great, Bob.

Yet while JMU was celebrating an easy win, its top competition -- North Texas and Tulane -- also won with ease.

The Mean Green demolished Temple 52-25, and Tulane shut out Charlotte 27-0.

A Tulane win in the American championship game would effectively lock up a playoff bid for the Green Wave. How the committee would view a comparison between North Texas and James Madison is tougher to figure, but a Mean Green win over Tulane would likely be a boost for UNT.

But thanks to SMU‘s loss to Cal, there is another option. The ACC title game will feature Virginia and Duke, a team with five losses, including two to teams outside the Power 4. Could that leave the door open for the Sun Belt’s champion to jump the ACC’s champion should the Blue Devils topple the Cavaliers?

Surely nothing that catastrophic could happen to the ACC, a league whose entire personality is basically that pharmaceutical commercial in which the lady holds up a cutout smiley face everywhere she goes so people won’t realize how miserable she is.

But, of course, the worst came on Saturday night when SMU fell behind Cal, fought back, blew a late lead, then shanked a field goal that would’ve tied it, opening the door for 7-5 Duke to make the conference title game.

And while Manny Diaz and the ACC are eager to make the case that Duke belongs in the playoff if it wins, there are some problematic metrics beyond just the wins and losses.

Those are all ESPN’s metrics, and the committee may have some different ones. But I still am just not sure, for all the committee’s lack of a basic moral compass, that it would be able to argue that a five-loss Duke — with two of those losses outside the Power Four — belongs in ahead of 13-1 James Madison. It’s a PR nightmare.¹

Perhaps this is all a bunch of hubbub for nothing. Three weeks ago Virginia demolished Duke in what was, by Manny Diaz’s own admission, the one game all season the Blue Devils just got whipped.

In other words, there probably aren’t going to be a lot of fans in Charlotte this weekend regardless, but anyone who’s not wearing Duke blue is probably going to be rooting hard for the Hoos.

What’s David working on?

I’ve got two stories coming this week, both of which require a good bit more effort on my part, so I’m going to be pretty busy the next few days.

One of those stories, however, will double back to something we discussed here a few weeks back: What’s happened to the ACC? I’ve got some good insight and info coming, so should be an interesting read.

Additionally, Andrea Adelson and I will be hosting Inside ACCess live on Saturday from the ACC championship game. We should have a number of good guests lined up, so be sure to tune in.

And, one of the best stories out of the ACC this year is Virginia running back J’Mari Taylor, who was a walk-on at North Carolina Central and is now the ACC’s top rusher. We talked with him for last week’s Inside ACCess. Oh, and he’ll be back in his hometown of Charlotte in hopes of winning a conference title this weekend.

How’s David voting?

I’ll have lots more thoughts on the playoff rankings later this week with Anger Index, but I have to admit, I’ve come around on Texas’ case.

The crazy thing is, I think if we went by “eye test,” Miami and Notre Dame would clearly be playoff teams, and Alabama and Oklahoma would be out. A&M, too, perhaps. But I cannot imagine that happening.

The more I think on it though, the more I wonder if the committee would like to punt on the Notre Dame vs. Miami question and leave both of them out. If BYU were to win the Big 12, I think there’s a great chance of that happening.

On the flip side, will Alabama get the same treatment this week as SMU did last week? The Tide are on the right side of the ledger, but suffering loss No. 3 in the SEC championship game could change things. Should it? That’s a bigger question.

Anyway, here’s my ESPN power ranking ballot for this week…²

I also had to turn in a ballot for All-ACC rosters, and let me tell you… the lunacy of this process is exhausting.

Every year, I make a point that ALL starters should automatically be nominated because EVERY year there are players I would’ve voted for who I wasn’t able to vote for because their school didn’t nominate them as an option. I won’t get too deeply into specifics here because, in a few weeks, Andrea and I will reveal our official All-ACC team, and we’ll talk the real best players then.

But there’s also the issue of how these rosters are constructed. There are two RBs and three WRs but just four DBs. It’s not reflective of how football gets played. Add a nickel! Also, they have an “all-purpose back.” What is that? You already have two RBs! At the very least, if you’re nominated for APB, you shouldn’t be able to be nominated for another position.

And perhaps most ridiculous is the “specialist” position. There is no spot for a return man, but those guys can be nominated as a specialist. But so can kickers and punters and long snappers. Kickers and punters are also nominated at their own positions. And yet the best kicker was not also nominated at specialist. Nor was the top returner in the ACC (Caulin Lacy). It’s just a bonkers system.³

Anyway, I voted. I’m posting my ballot here. But don’t blame me for how it looks. Even I don’t agree with it.

And, lastly, here’s my Week 14 ACC tiers.

My dad absolutely loved the Beach Boys, so I grew up with them. I’d argue “God Only Knows” is one of the handful of perfect pop songs ever written. Here’s a cool video explaining why I’m right.

1. Though leaving out a Power Conference champion ain’t exactly great PR either. Worse for the ACC though.

2. There are just not 25 teams that warrant the honor of being ranked, as you’ll see by Nos. 23-25.

3. And that’s not even getting into the fact that there are no easy ways for voters to properly find stats for OL or DBs, etc.