The king is dead

After a dramatic last-second loss to Georgia Tech, things look bleak for Clemson. Is the Tigers' decade-long run of dominance in the ACC over?

Clemson is 1-2 after Saturday's loss to Georgia Tech. Things look bleak.

From 2015-2020, Clemson didn't lose a single August or September game (24-0). Since 2021, the Tigers are 13-7 in August/September, including three losses to unranked foes and 6-4 in conference games.

There's been a steady trend since the end of the Trevor Lawrence era at Clemson, and if the downward trajectory didn't always show up in year-end rankings, it was obvious to anyone who's paid attention. Even last year, a season that many viewed retrospectively as successful, Clemson was blown out by Georgia, Louisville and Texas, needed near miracles to beat SMU and Pitt, and fired its defensive coordinator after the season.

Here's a point I made yesterday:

Indeed, another way of looking at this:

• From 2015-2020, Clemson was 68-7 vs Power Five foes with an average margin of 21.3 points, and just 21 of 75 games (28%) were decided by a TD or less.

• Since the start of 2021, Clemson is 32-16 vs. Power Five/Four foes with an average margin of 5.9 points, and 22 of 48 (46%) have been on-score games.

Dabo Swinney has a tendency to whitewash some of these losses as "just a play or two" making the difference, but the point worth considering is that, during Clemson's glory days, a bad play or two rarely mattered because the margins were so big. The fact that a couple bad plays is the difference between a win and a loss against the likes of Duke, Georgia Tech or SMU is the entire problem.

And look at those close games, too. From 2015-2020, Clemson was 18-4 in one-possession games, the best record in the country. They’re 13-9 since — a record still better than average, but far from as dominant. Close games are largely about luck ultimately, but how many close games you’re in is often about style and talent. Those close games from 2015-2020 were often about the handful of mistakes Clemson made turning a blowout into a close win. Now, they turn a close win into a close loss.

And now, five years, two QBs and three offensive coordinators into this backslide, it's fair to say it's not about bad luck. Something is fundamentally different.

Here's another stat that probably isn't entirely fair but is still a bit eye-popping.

Clemson starting QBs vs. P5 opposition:
Trevor Lawrence, 31-2 (.939)
Deshaun Watson, 28-3 (.903)
Kelly Bryant, 12-2 (.857)
Tajh Boyd, 26-7 (.788)
DJ Uiagalelei, 18-6 (.750)
Cade Klubnik, 15-11 (.577)

Here's what I wrote in this week's Game Day Final column on the difference between UGA's close win and Clemson's close loss:

The bigger question is what the loss means for Clemson. Dabo Swinney's crew is now a 50-yard touchdown run in the final 90 seconds against Pitt and a walk-off 57-yard field goal against SMU away from having lost seven of its past eight games against Power 4 foes -- though if that field goal were missed it would have just pushed that game to overtime. Suddenly, the idea that Clemson's decade-long run as the class of the ACC might be over isn't simply the ramblings of Tyler from Spartanburg. Had Georgia lost Saturday, it would've been less a king dethroned than Napoleon regathering his forces while serving out an exile on Elba.

Clemson's fall from the throne, however, has an air of finality to it, as if Swinney hadn't simply been exiled from atop the ACC, but had packed up his bags and moved to Boca Raton, where he'll wear his socks too high, play a lot of pickleball and complain about early-bird special portion sizes at Denny's. Clemson is a team without an offensive identity, with a QB who often looks flustered in critical situations, and faces, for the fifth year in a row, an uphill battle against a narrative that Swinney's magic has worn off.

I don't think we need to completely overreact in the other direction too drastically just yet. I said before the season I thought Clemson was a good football team, likely the most talented in the ACC, but far from a shoo-in to win the league and probably not national championship material. That's, more or less, still how I feel. The two losses are to two teams ranked in the top 15 by one possession. If Clemson had won both those games, the narrative would be entirely different but I'm not sure the team would be. In other words, the problems would be there either way, just as the upside is still there in spite of the losses.¹

In any case, the ACC probably doesn't run through Clemson at this point. Here's how I had the league tiered Sunday morning.

I had lots more to say about Week 3 in my Game Day Final column, which you can read HERE.

What's Happening in Week 4

I don't have any stories on tap for this week, but we'll have a good episode of Inside ACCess with NC State coach Dave Doeren, whose Wolfpack are 3-0, and Miami AD Dan Radakovich, who will help us preview the ACC’s fall ADs meeting in Charlotte.

Inside ACCess airs at 5 pm on Thursdays on ACCN but you can also get the whole show in podcast form by subscribing HERE. (Please! I’ll be your best friend!)

Also, I had Chat GPT create a new picks bet tracker for me and Andrea, who is looking increasingly like she'll be jumping out of a plane this spring.

So long, Brent Pry

After a disastrous 0-3 start, Virginia Tech officially fired Brent Pry on Sunday.

You can find our list of potential candidates to replace Pry, alongside key targets and players the Hokies must retain HERE.

Two things on the firing:

1) Before hiring Pry, Virginia Tech kicked the tires on close to a half-dozen other established coaches and none wanted to go to Blacksburg. The reason? From what we’ve been told, a ton of disfunction at the administrative level. Andrea Adelson wrote about some of that in 2023, and the story is worth revisiting HERE. If VT’s going to land a big fish that can turn the program around in short order, there’s going to need to be a serious housecleaning first. And multiple sources I’ve spoken with say that’s coming sooner than later.

2) Virginia Tech can’t just be thinking wins and losses. As Whit Babcock noted in his presentation to the board, these are trying times in college sports, and with the ACC on shaky footing longterm, there’s got to be a sense of urgency about rejuvenating this program to ensure the Hokies aren’t left behind in whatever comes next. The notion that Virginia Tech wouldn’t be a part of college football at the highest level would’ve seemed ludicrous just a decade ago, but things have changed dramatically, and it’s telling that Virginia — for all its own athletic faults — seems to be the program in more demand when it comes to realignment options.

What's David Reading?

A few other stories to share to start your week...

The Athletic has a great profile of Cal QB Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele, who had another fine game in a win over Minnesota on Saturday. My big takeaway from the piece: Cal's already preparing for how much they'll need to spend to keep JKS in the fold.

And my friend Grace Raynor also had a fun story for The Athletic, profiling the parents of Vandy's Australian punter Nick Haberer. Wil and Raelene moved to Nashville to be close to their son for this season and -- yeah, there are some cultural differences.

Week 3 Power Rankings

Here’s my ballot for ESPN’s Week 3 power rankings. At this point, I still don’t think we have enough information to say much with any certainty, but it’s worth noting that, of the remaining undefeated teams, these are the only ones who have multiple Power Four wins already:

NC State
Vandy
Tulane
Georgia Tech
Iowa State
Oregon
LSU
Ole Miss

1. This is also mostly how I feel about Notre Dame, too.