The subtle brilliance of Cooper Mania
Duke's really good. Don't let that overshadow how much went into building the machine.
Some quick business to start...
What is the point of this newsletter?
Well, what's the point of anything really? We're all just killing time one way or another, and this way involves paying attention to me, so that's good.
But otherwise, the basic idea here is to have a space that is not reliant on the increasingly unreliable Twitter/X algorithm to capture some ideas that are more substantive than a tweet but not so meaty to be worthy of a feature story (think: longer Twitter threads or things I’d make videos for TikTok about if I were 30 years younger). It also serves as a space to share what I've been working on recently and to offer up some other nonsense that requires a paper trail so I can be blamed later.
In any case, it'd be cool if you signed up as a subscriber and on a somewhat weekly basis I'll hit your inbox with some insight, links or Simpsons references that will help kill upwards of 4 minutes of an otherwise insignificant day.
Now, on to basketball…
Duke is headed to the Final Four, which should probably be no surprise for a team with three freshmen lottery picks that's been blowing out nearly every opponent for months.
That it's looked so easy1 for Duke is actually the part of the story that's getting overlooked a bit, I think.
First, there's Cooper Flagg. If there's a story to be told about Flagg, it's that he makes everything look easy. That's his magic.
During halftime of Duke's Jan. 7 win over Pitt, I was talking with Conor O'Neill from Devils Illustrated about the seemingly similar hype Flagg had gotten to Zion Williamson, though we agreed they were entirely dissimilar experience covering Zion’s season at Duke and Flagg's. Our premise was this: Zion was must-see TV. Every game, he was capable of doing something utterly incredible, something we'd not seen before. Cooper was simply good... so good that it wasn't actually all that fun to talk about how good he was.
And then, of course, a few minutes later, Flagg stole a pass, went the length of the court in three dribbles, then delivered an emphatic dunk from just inside the free-throw line. It was the most Zion-esque moment of the season for Flagg, bar none.
Last month, I went to Maine to report a story on Flagg's emergence from the perspective of those who saw him coming 10 years ago, and there was certainly more than a bit of Zion-like praise about Flagg's dominance as a seventh or eight grader.
But that's not what the biggest takeaways were from the folks who really knew ball. From them, it wasn't the monster dunks -- or really scoring at all -- that told his story.
This, to me, is what the Cooper Flagg experience is all about. It's not a magic trick meant to inspire awe. That was Zion's territory. His game is more like dinner at your favorite restaurant. It's not about the wow. It's about every bite being as good as the next, about the ambiance and the service and the perfectly crafted cocktails and the fact that, when you show up to eat there again a week later, all of those things will still be true -- only with some small tweak that makes the experience feel new. Flagg does it all well, but the real magic comes in how effortless it seems, how rarely you see the stitching and how easy it is to overlook all the work happening in the kitchen before the meal shows up at your table (to mix metaphors a bit).
And I think that's true of this team as a whole. It's easy enough to make a Ryan Day comparison for what Jon Scheyer is doing in Durham -- following a legendary coach at a blue blood program with more resources than anyone else. And that's at least a little true. But it overlooks just how easy it is for that recipe to flop, how this Duke team isn't built via portal superstars, how Scheyer understood it was time to move on from Jeremy Roach (a guy he loves) or how he kept faith in someone like Tyrese Proctor (who's been a force in the postseason).
And sure, getting three of the top recruits in the country to play for you is a pretty good way to win basketball games. Of course, it was also the formula that got John Calipari ousted at Kentucky, so again, there are no guarantees. But more than that, Scheyer wasn't interested in just landing elite recruits. He had a plan for this team from the outset that required some very specific skills.
Everything we've done since March 31, since losing that Elite Eight game, has been incredibly intentional. Before figuring out what you're going to do, you have to figure out who you're doing it with. Our entire staff has been together for a year now. Our team is not just getting the best talent but looking analytically what the fits are going to be, including from a culture standpoint. And then blending talent in different roles, it was important to have the best fit and be really intentional in how we put it all together. - Jon Scheyer
Or, as Scheyer suggested earlier this season: “Roster building is the single most important thing a head coach does now.” And he’s done it brilliantly this season.
If you hate Duke, I get it. That's sort of the point of Duke's existence in the college basketball universe, to be a lightning rod for attention, good or bad.
But like Zion's season in Durham, I think this is a Duke team that warrants appreciation even from the haters because we're seeing something that doesn't come around that often.
Unlike the Zion year, however, this team requires a bit more of a refined palate to truly appreciate.
Odds & Ends
More from Maine
Here’s the link to the story I wrote on Cooper Flagg’s upbringing in Newport, Maine — a town I found utterly delightful.
A quick story that I didn’t include in the piece: I stopped in at the Newport Entertainment Center (which is basically a bowling alley with an arcade and a bar) the first night I was there. I had a Bud Lite for $2. I met the owner, who told me Cooper’s grandparents came in often, sat right down at the end of the bar. When a new shipment of mini basketballs arrived as arcade prizes, there was one Duke ball. The whole staff and a bunch of the NEC’s regulars signed it and gave it to Cooper’s grandparents to give to him.
And while I was in Maine, I was able to work on this SportsCenter Featured piece about Cooper’s hometown that came out really well, I think. Check it out on IG below or on TikTok here.
Big Ten’s title drought
There seems to be a particular attention paid to the Big Ten’s absence from this year’s Final Four and, with it, another year past without a national title. Indeed, the Big Ten hasn’t won it all since Michigan State cut down the nets in 2000. And as hard as it is for someone of my age to admit… 2000 was a really long time ago.
So, is this a sign there’s something inherently wrong with Big Ten basketball? I’m not so sure.
Going back to 2001, the Big Ten has had 15 teams reach the Final Four. Only the ACC has more (and the Big East also has 15).
Given the financial windfall coming the Big Ten’s way with football-related TV deals and the seeming uptick of SEC basketball, there’s a lot of incentive for the B1G to throw some serious cash at its hoops programs (how is Ohio State not at least decent every year?) and, as Bobby Bowden once told me2 about winning it all… if you’re consistently on the green, eventually a putt will drop.
ACC in the doldrums
As Mark Twain once said, there are lies, damn lies and statistics. Here’s a good example of that.
The joke, of course, is that the ACC only got four teams in — a woeful end to a miserable season.
But like the narrative about the lack of Cinderellas this year, we’re also looking at a small sample size in the grand scheme of things, and a lot of success at the conference level (particularly in hoops) tends to be a bit cyclical.
More than that, I think we might just be overreacting a bit.
For example, did you know that from 2011 through 2014, the ACC didn’t send a single team to the Final Four? Zero in four years. That feels like something to get upset about.
But what happened after that? The ACC has 10 Final Four teams in the past 10 tournaments, including three national champions (and Duke a potential fourth this year).
In other words, there’s not a big reason to assume next year won’t be markedly better for the ACC.
The Big East, rev share and the future of roster building
Been a bunch of talk about how the Big East (among other conferences) might benefit in a post-House era in which those schools (think Gonzaga or Villanova or Xavier) who take basketball seriously but don’t field an FBS football program will have a serious financial advantage on the hardwood.
I think this lacks some perspective though.
For one, the Big East is earning a fraction of what the Power Four conferences earn3 in TV money because basketball generates a lot less TV money than football.
And secondly, those big football schools that will max out revenue sharing dollars on their biggest revenue sport will still find ways to supplement through collectives and other NIL opportunities.
To be sure, this isn’t nothing. I’ve talked to a number of ADs at Power Four schools with big basketball brands and they’ve all suggested there are some tougher conversations about how best to distribute rev share dollars.4 In most cases, however, that doesn’t mean taking away from basketball to feed the football monster. Hoops is going to get a bigger cut of the pie at places like Duke5 and Kansas and UNC because hoops drives more revenue there.6
But the biggest thing to know is that collectives are not disappearing. Yes, they’ll be different. And yes, technically the NCAA is hoping to have a “clearinghouse” that evaluates all NIL deals to ensure they’re actually NIL at fair market value and not just disguised pay-for-play, but virtually no one I’ve spoken with actually believes that’s how it’ll play out. Nearly all have said the $20.5 million in revenue share from the schools will be a salary floor, not a cap, at the biggest schools.
This week’s reading list
I haven’t written squat this week, but here’s a bit of fun from others.
Bill Connelly ($) counts down the 90 best QBs of the 2000s so far and somehow Eric Dungey is not on the list. Total BS.
Adam Rittenberg ($) looks at the 15 best QBs this year, and it could be a nice season for the ACC.
Our top-25 breakdown looks at potential breakout stars for each top-25 team, and I handled Clemson, Louisville and South Carolina’s entries.
Duke has won 15 straight by an average of 23.5 points per game. Just three have come by single digits (two of which were without Flagg in the ACCT).
He told me this in regards to Mark Richt’s coaching career at Georgia, so perhaps it’s not actually great advice.
I spoke with Jim Phillips about a possible "working relationship” with the Big East, as has been suggested by the likes of Coach K, Rick Pitino and Dan Hurley. Phillips said he’s had “regular” conversations with Big East commissioner Val Ackerman but nothing of substance has come from that yet. “Is it just another in-season matchup?” he asked, referring to the SEC-ACC challenge. “Or can we do something more?” The point is, Phillips is open to ideas that make sense for the ACC, but he’s not super eager to move forward with something that doesn’t seriously move the needle.
I’ve compared this to having a salary cap for pro sports determined by city not sport, so Green Bay can spend all its money on the Packers, while Chicago has to split the same amount between the Cubs, Sox, Bulls, Bears and Blackhawks. It’s pretty non-sensical.
Jon Scheyer actually commissioned a study on Duke basketball to find its brand value (similar to what FSU did before suing the ACC) and found that the Blue Devils men’s hoops program has the equivalent brand value of a higher end Power Four football program. Which is probably true, but also, I’ve yet to see someone commission a study that didn’t return the results they were hoping for.
Most schools are following one of three models for revenue share. The most common is the House settlement split, which is something akin to 75% for football, 20% for men’s and women’s basketball and 5% for everything else. Other schools are simply deciding where they want to put the money for their best ROI (so, for example, BC is investing more in hockey). But what a number of schools are doing is following their actual revenue streams, so Clemson will probably be closer to 85% for football, while North Carolina something more like 60%.