We’ve come so close to playoff chaos the past two weeks. Indiana and Oregon needed late comebacks in Week 11. Texas A&M needed the biggest comeback in school history in Week 12. Ole Miss went into the fourth quarter trailing Florida. Alabama had a chance to knock Oklahoma out of the playoff picture entirely, too. Michigan, too, could’ve seen its hopes evaporate with a loss to Northwestern, saved by a last-second field goal, and USC overcame a 21-7 deficit against Iowa to keep its shot at the Big Ten title and a playoff bid alive, too.
Nothing came easily in the SEC on Saturday, a day with so much unexpected drama that even rapper Waka Flocka had to rescue a bunch of Kentucky fans stuck in a stadium elevator in what was surely the most heroic act by a hip-hop artist in service to the SEC since Flo Rida felled a shark that had boarded their boat and stolen Jim McElwain’s clothes.
Like scaling mountains or waiting tables at Waffle House after midnight, life in the SEC is not for the faint of heart.
Saturday delivered one of the most epic comebacks in recent SEC history, as Texas A&M erased a 30-3 halftime deficit thanks to Marcel Reed‘s dynamic second half, in which he completed 16 of 20 passes for 298 yards and 3 touchdowns, and the Aggies did the impossible -- beating a 3-7 team by a point.
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The Tide’s lack of a consistent run game has been a concern this season, and the reliance on Simpson’s arm to burnish the offense seemed to be flirting with disaster, like wearing a white shirt to Dreamland Bar-B-Que.
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Georgia jumped out to a 14-3 lead, but its offense suddenly got stuck in the mud, and a Gunner Stockton interception midway through the third quarter seemed to open the door for Texas. The Longhorns scored six plays later to pull within four, and they had the Dawgs backed into a fourth-and-1 at their 36 on the ensuing drive. This should’ve been the point where the wheels came off for Georgia. Instead, Kirby Smart went for it, Stockton hit Chauncey Bowens for a 10-yard completion and the drive continued. Four plays later, Georgia faced another fourth down, and this time, the Dawgs converted thanks to a Texas penalty. They scored a TD on the drive, executed a brilliant on-side kick, scored again touchdown, and the rest was easy.
The win was a credit to Stockton, who continues his run of understated greatness this season. He threw for 229 yards and four touchdowns, connected with eight receivers, threw just five incompletions, and revealed he actually solved the government shutdown by playing an emotional rendition of Lee Greenwood’s “God Bless the U.S.A.” on air guitar on the floor of the Senate. But it was a reminder, too, that Smart is the closest thing college football has to Keyser Soze, utterly unflappable in the face of risk because no one else has the stomach to stop him.
But, for all the drama, in nearly every case, order was restored and the top teams found a way to win.
As a result -- and despite there being two weeks of the regular season and the conference championship games remaining -- I think we’re closing in on a true playoff field.
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Let’s take a look:
The SEC has three locks: Texas A&M, Georgia and Ole Miss. Alabama and Oklahoma are locks if they win out. Bama has a cupcake and then Auburn. Oklahoma has two home games against Missouri and LSU. Vandy, if it wins out (Kentucky and at Tennessee) would be in the mix as well, but at the back of the pecking order due to head-to-head losses to both Bama and Texas (which beat Oklahoma).
The Big Ten has two locks: Ohio State and Indiana. Oregon and USC play this week. Oregon is in with a win. USC would have a strong case. Technically Michigan remains on the periphery if it beats Ohio State, but since USC has the tie-breaker there, we’d be looking at both the Big Ten getting four teams in and Michigan getting the nod over Oregon as the fourth. It’s unlikely.
The Big 12 has one lock: Texas Tech. BYU is the most under appreciated team in the country right now (one loss, to a top-five team, and a No. 6 strength of record -- better than Bama or Oklahoma, for what it’s worth) and can still win the Big 12.
The ACC champion will get in (someone out of Georgia Tech, Pitt, SMU or Virginia, with Duke and Miami having long shot odds), as will the best Group of Six team (almost certainly either James Madison or the American champion).
And then there’s Notre Dame, which seems a lock to finish 10-2, and has consistently been ranked in the top 10 by the committee thus far.
The last piece to the puzzle is Miami, which has long odds at making the ACC championship game, and if it doesn’t, will be held up against a Notre Dame team with the same record, who the Canes beat in Week 1, but who has consistently been well ahead of Miami in the committee’s rankings.
So, add all that up and we have eight locks (3 SEC, 2 B1G, 1 B12, 2 other conference champs).
That leaves four spots.
Oregon locks one up with a win over USC. Bama locks one up with a win over Auburn. Oklahoma locks one up with a win over Missouri and LSU.
So now we’re down to one wild card that almost certainly belongs to Notre Dame in the committee’s eyes.
Now, let’s say Oregon loses to USC. Who’d have the edge between Vandy, USC and Miami?
Let’s say Oklahoma loses one of its last two and opens the door for another wild card? That’s best-case scenario for the Canes.
Could Auburn really win the Iron Bowl? I do think Alabama’s lack of a run game is going to bite them again at some point, but I’m not sure Auburn has enough offense to stand a chance in that one.
OK, so a round-up:
In: Georgia, Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Ohio State, Indiana, Texas Tech, ACC champ, top Group of Six
Win and in: Oregon, Alabama, Oklahoma
Wild card: Notre Dame
Waiting in the wings: Miami, BYU, USC and maybe Michigan
So I came up with a system to filter out the noise. I call it the True Top Ten.
I took the SP+ rankings as a baseline, because they’re a good measure of team strength, and counted wins and losses this way:
+3 points for a win over a top-10 team
+2 for a win over teams ranked 11-20
+1 for wins over teams ranked 21-30
-1 for a loss to a top-15 team
-2 for a loss to a team ranked 16-30
-3 for a loss to a team ranked 31 or below
Every other game—that is, any win over a team ranked lower than 30th—counts as zero. Good teams shouldn’t get extra credit for winning those games.
I’d tried to modify it just a bit, as I explained in a previous newsletter, I ended up losing all my data when my laptop crashed, and I didn’t have the energy to do it again.
But, given that we don’t have that many teams left to sift through, I went ahead and dug back into this using my own process mostly copied from Tommy.
Here’s the methodology:
I didn’t like Tommy’s use of round numbers, so I used FPI data to look for natural breaks between teams -- separating them into tiers, if you will.
Look at the raw FPI data and there’s a natural break between No. 13 Ole Miss and No. 14 BYU, so I made teams 1-13 Tier 1. Wins over them are worth 5 points, and there is no deduction for a loss.
Then there’s another natural break between No. 23 Washington and No. 24 Auburn. Yes, the fact that LSU, Washington and Auburn are all part of this conversation is part of the problem with this method, but as I noted in the last newsletter, data sets like FPI do help guide the degree of difficulty in beating a team.
Anyway, Tier 2 is teams 14-23, and wins over them are worth 3 points each, while losses are -1.
The next real tier break comes between No. 52 Baylor and No. 53 Toledo. You can again argue that beating Baylor isn’t exactly a good win, but there really isn’t that much difference between the 30th best team in the country and the 50th. See the ACC standings for proof. Anyway, Tier 3 is teams 24-53, and a win against them is worth 1 point and a loss is -2.
Everyone else goes into Tier 4. Wins are worth a half-point, losses are a deduction of 3.
I also gave out bonus points for a win on the road or a win by 15 or more. One point was deducted for a loss by 15 or more.
How’d it work out?
Well, not a whole lot different than the committee’s take.
The first thing that probably jumps out is that Miami is WAY behind. But, it’s also worth noting that SMU is two spots out of being in Tier 2, and if we added the Mustangs to that list (which could happen with another win or two), the Canes would jump ahead of Utah and be tied with USC. Louisville’s continued crappiness is the bigger issue. But it is worth noting that Miami has more FPI top 35 wins (4) than USC (3), Oregon (2), Notre Dame (1)1 or BYU (1).
The upshot of all of this is, if chalk plays out the rest of the way -- a big if -- I think our playoff bracket will be:
1. Ohio State (B1G champ) 2. Texas A&M (SEC champ) 3. Texas Tech (B12 champ) 4. Indiana (highest non-champ) 5. Georgia 6. Ole Miss 7. Oregon 8. Oklahoma 9. Alabama 10. Notre Dame 11. Georgia Tech 12. James Madison
If you’re BYU or Miami or Vandy, you’re rooting hard for Alabama, Oklahoma and Oregon to lose in the final two weeks.
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I make a lot of jokes about the ACC in Game Day Final. It’s just so easy and I don’t like doing hard things. Anyway, I wanted to point out one ACC-related joke from this week.
After spending much of the past month running an offensive scheme best described as “what if we gave a chimpanzee the keys to a 1993 Honda Accord,” Miami finally seemed to rekindle its early-season magic in an emphatic 41-7 win over NC State.
As I’ve noted in the past, my ridiculous approach to doing this column often creates some disagreement over the content, and this particular joke, while not deemed offensive, did raise a question from our copy desk, which wondered, “if Miami’s offense used to be good, then wouldn’t it make more sense if the chimpanzee was driving a sports car or something like that?”
In my mind, this was a fundamental misunderstanding of the joke. Shannon Dawson was the chimp. Miami’s offense was the Honda Accord. They both looked bad. But I see the reason for the question.
My bigger takeaway, however, was this: Some nice person who likely spent four years working on a journalism or English degree, spent hard-earned money to get it, landed a job at ESPN. I’m sure they were thrilled. They probably informed friends and family. For many, it’s a dream come true. They’ve worked hard, impressed their bosses, spent countless hours combing through endless text hoping to save otherwise smart, talented writers from making a glaring mistake. The copy desk is the journalist’s safety net, and this person showed up for their job on Saturday hoping to do something good for the company.
And instead, they quite seriously, had to type out an email with the question: “Shouldn’t the chimp be driving a sports car?”
Anyway, I’d like to take this moment to apologize to everyone who’s ever had to work with me.
A few other nuggets
A quick reminder that Inside ACCess is back on Thursday. I have no idea what we’re planning to do this week, but I’m sure it’ll be wonderful. Please subscribe to the podcast HERE or watch on ACCN on Thursday at 4 pm.
Our ACC picks standings have really grown bleak for Andrea. This week, her lovely daughter, Li’l AA, officially caught her for a second-place tie.
Andrea is now 11 wins behind me.
How sad.
And while this means she’s certainly going skydiving as a result, I’m now regretting we didn’t go with my original suggestion for a wager. My initial plan was that you had to eat an Arby’s Beef N Cheddar every day, consecutively, for as many days as wins you lost by. The idea that Andrea would have to go 11 straight days eating Arby’s right now is just a delight. Alas, she’ll be doing something far less upsetting and dangerous by just jumping out of a plane.
Lastly, here’s rankings for this week.
First, my ESPN power rankings top 25:
And my ACC tiers:
Also, man I was so jacked for the “Remember the Time” video when I was, like, 13.
Personally, I feel like the inclusion of Notre Dame over Miami would be a travesty on logical grounds, but I’d be OK with anything that gets us Jeremiyah Love in the playoff.
